Even Keeled

Another article in the growing corpus of “food prices are out of control” stories, now sourdough bread is skyrocketing due to drastic increases in flour expense.  One baker claims flour has spiked 300% (from $2k to $6k/day).  Even the “complimentary” bread at the start of most meals when dining out must now be requested at many restaurants.  Guess my pizza idea is probably out of the window now…

What’s frustrating is yet again, there is no real investigative journalism associated with the sensationalistic “you won’t be able to even buy bread soon because it will cost so much” thread.

Here are the potential reasons flour costs have spiked offered in the story:

• Tight supply
• Gas prices
• Poor weather
• Small(er) harvests
• Replacement of wheat crops with corn or soybeans
• Chinese and Indian consumption of bread products
• Global increase in beef consumption (grain goes to feed the beasts)

The article closes with an uplifting chart detailing not only the year-over-year 37% increase in flour, but the 35% increase for eggs, 23% increase for milk and 19% increase for pasta.   Comments to the article run the typical gambit of republican and ethanol bashing rants. 

Know what would be fantastic?  If the author turns this into an ongoing, weekly thread exploring the cause of these price increases!  Maybe then newspapers wouldn’t be on the verge of collapse.  Here’s a recipe full of ingredients that could be used to prepare a wonderful, fresh, hot-out-the-oven story on the connecting elements driving food out of reach.

Did you know there is company, Corn Products International (CPO) that focuses exclusive on corn production worldwide?  That’s interesting…how has their stock done?  Pretty good, up more than 15% this year alone.  

What about actually researching corn production?  Total bushels produced has steadily declined from 2004 to 2006, according to the corn refiners association:

“Corn for grain production in 2007 is estimated at 13.1 billion
bushels, down 1 percent from the November forecast but 24 percent
above 2006.  The 2007 yield estimate is the second
highest on record, behind 2004, while production is the largest on
record as producers harvested the most corn acres for grain since
1933.”

Ah, but wait…corn for grain increased in 2007 (USDA).  Sinister corn at work!  Lets look at (total) wheat production,

Here’s a great breakdown by crop type over the last 3 years, again from the USDA:

                Wheat:  Production by Class, United States, 2005-2007
              ———————————————————————————-
Winter
            :   Hard      :   Soft   :   Hard       :   Soft          :    All
            :   Red       :   Red    :   White     :   White       :   White
            :———————————————————————————–
2005   : 929,820    309,021     25,279      235,009     260,288
2006   : 682,079    390,165     13,284      212,553     225,837
2007   : 961,588    357,897     21,460      175,044     196,504

            :————————————————————————————
Spring                                       
            :   Hard   :   Hard    :   Soft      :      All     :                :     Total
            :   Red     :  White   :   White   :   White  :   Durum   :
            :————————————————————————————  
2005   : 466,587     4,530      33,339      37,869      101,105     2,104,690
2006   : 432,339     6,226      21,915      28,141      53,475       1,812,036
2007   : 448,904     5,589      24,554      30,143      71,686       2,066,722

So, wheat isn’t really vanishing from farms?  WTF?  Durum wheat (used for pasta and bread) is down from 2005 levels, but up substantially from last year.  So shouldn’t there have been an increase in prices last year with a corrosponding decrease this year?  The USDA has a fantastic website with tons of data on global production and consumption of almost every agricultural good worldwide.  You can even have a report emailed to you weekly (I signed up!)

A very complex and multi-faceted issue.  The point is there needs to be thoughtful, documented understanding of why prices for the very essentials of our diet are suddenly skyrocketing in cost.    Not panic inducing headlines that don’t do anything more than create worry and offer no constructive dialogue.