Even Keeled

My boss Omar posted a very thoughtful and comprehensive review of the current mobile landscape on the AdMob blog last week. Basically a fundamental shift has occurred in mobile where engineering and technology solutions are now the primary components of success for any product (and company). Previously business development skills, specifically negotiating carrier relationships, were the key criteria for mobile tech companies.

For me, this is really what signals the onset of Mobile 2.0. Innovation can now be put directly in front of users/customers. The feedback loop for making incremental, or wholesale improvements is near frictionless; technologic Darwinism is now in play.

The broader Internet went through a very similar transformation albeit on the engineering side. Web 2.0 was about having the tools and infrastructure to enable rapid development of ideas into services. Good ones thrived; bad ones were either modified or tossed by the wayside. Of course there are still huge challenges facing mobile developers, entrepreneurs, users, etc, but those challenges can now be translated into solutions.

Lots of bloggers and industry folks are continually talking about a ‘bubble’ in Silicon Valley tech (venture funded private companies). Personally, I don’t think anything could be further from the truth. The people I know involved in mobile companies have a passion for innovation and a pretty good understanding of how to succeed. Nearly all have worked both start-ups and the ones who are moving here bring a similar mindset. Show me the problem, let’s figure out a good way to solve it and than get shit done. That’s not a recipe for a bubble; it’s the foundation of practically every society around the world.

As I read about Microsoft’s decision to abandon their acquisition of Yahoo!, I couldn’t help but think how solid a choice that will turn out to be. Microsoft wasn’t buying technology, innovation or engineers; most good ones already left and those that remain will find no shortage of opportunities. They were buying reach and visitors, fools gold in today’s web application space. Yahoo! never understand how to foster innovation, at least during the time I worked there.

I wrote but never posted a long piece on why Y! lost their way. Thinking about it now, it’s not necessary. Res ipsa loquitor. While they might have the number one property in various categories (i.e. Web email), that hasn’t translated into a successful business model. Nor were the products they released ever revolutionary. Compounded by a corporate culture that rewarded sycophant behavior rather than effective problem solving and teamwork, the death spiral began long ago and cannot be reversed. My guess is their stock will get hammered Monday morning, followed by another round of layoffs leading to a further retraction in product originality.

They’ll be talk of future upside, organizational improvements and a unrealistic grasping to the straws of the ideals of the past. But all that’s moot. A friends father once told me an interesting parable in high school. I don’t think I ever really understood it, till recently.

A farmer kept his sheep in a pasture for years. There was plenty of grass, water and a shaded area for the sheep to hide from the mid-day sun. One day, someone accidentally left the gate open and all the sheep ran out. The farmer herded them all back into the pasture and closed the gate, now secured with a lock. The next morning the farmer went outside and realized the sheep had all jumped the fence and taken off, no where to be found.

Nameste.