Even Keeled

We need to talk about making some changes in the afternoon shift.

Ok.

No one makes a better burger, and you’re able to keep up with the rush hour orders like no one else.  Our receipts go up 30% whenever you are on shift.

Ok.

But honestly,  the french fries are just awful.  And the attitude really is tough to deal with.   Yelling at the drive-through customers because they drive a Prious isn’t good for anyone.  We need someone more versatile.

Ok.

KFC might be hiring now.  That’s just down the road.  The pay is a little less, and well, you’re working with Chicken which is not hamburger, but the team there is more tolerant.  Maybe you should go and check them out.

Yeah, well fuck you.  I’m going to Wendy’s and we’re going to kick your ass!

Keeping Your Roosters Sane

The societal structure in the coop doesn’t remain the same forever. At times, the Beta Male will take a shot at the Alpha Male. This may result in an all out battle, but seldom does it go that far. The Alpha Male consistently reminds the Beta and all his subordinates who the King is. He does this a number of ways. They include anything from a good, old-fashioned beating, a peck on the backside, or just a posturing where the Boss will put himself between the subordinate and whatever the subordinates’ intentions were. The dominant male will often assert himself by showing up when the Beta is mating one of the hens. When he arrives at the act, the Beta will yield, get pushed away, or take a beating. There’s a key here…
It’s consistency (huge point, remember this one!!!). The Alpha is ever-vigilant. He doesn’t let up for a second because he knows if he gives his subjects an inch, they’ll take a mile. If he lets things start getting away from him, he’ll have big problems on his hands.

When an Alpha Male ages, he’ll eventually be replaced. This can happen through battle or just by tiring of his duties. When the Alpha is replaced by a younger male, a chain of events takes place. Once the Alpha yields, he’s got a huge problem to face. The next rooster down the rung will have a go at him. Then the next, then the next. In a day’s time, he’ll can drop from Top Dog all the way to the doghouse. Lots of times he’ll end up last in the coop, even to the hens (who will also take a shot at him during his descent).

All this time, there never has to be a fight. When the Alpha decides to submit, he’s been beaten psychologically and seems so devastated that he’s unwilling to take a stance against any of the birds for anything. At this point he’s been reduced to simply saving his hide, and he knows it. There’s an exception here. If the Alpha is replaced because he’s injured or sick, when recovered, he’s going to come screaming back to take his rightful place.

I decided to clean-up my (Internet) act. I deleted my Linkedin account, as well as most of the public information I had on Yelp, Facebook, etc. I also whittled down my friends list on all those services. Probably will do the same with IM later today.

I’ve given a lot of thought about what it means to be part of a social network, and frankly, I’m just not very social. And I’m OK with that. I prefer to have very close contacts; friends and family. Basically, the “ride to the airport” rule was applied. Can I call you for a ride to the airport and reasonably expect you’ll say “no problem.”. I extended this to friends that live in other cities, if I were to be in town for a visit.

I’ll keep my blog and Flickr account intact. Both are more cathartic for me personally, although there is a tertiary communicative effect.

-Jason

A few months ago I wrote a quick note on the sinking of the Alaska Ranger, a factory trawler from Seattle that went down in the Bering Sea. Popular Mechanics has an article describing (in detail) the rescue effort from both the perspective of the Coast Guard, as well as some of the fishermen who were saved.

I literally had chills running down my spine. The heroics of the Coast Guard were palpable in print, I can only imagine what it was like for them, in person. The coordination between the Helicopter, the cutter Munro and the sister-ship of the ‘Ranger was precise and near perfect.

What I also find amazing is what didn’t happen…no one ‘forgot’ to check the standby Pratt and Whitney jet engines used by the Munro to literally haul ass (35 MPH through the Bering Sea in a 378′ boat), there was no special appointee of the President or other elected official to screw things up, they didn’t forget to bring enough gas. No excuses, just immediate and successful execution.

Contrast with the recent reactions to almost every recent government led rescue effort; Katrina, the floods in Iowa, the California wild fires (last year) and you see the power of training and preparedness contrasted against ‘good enough’ and ‘unforeseeable’ .

Tragedy can come in many ways, it just shouldn’t happen after an unexpected event.

A coworker and I bet that gas prices in the San Francisco Bay Area will average $6/gallon by 8/1/2008. The irony is only in the when, not the if (loser fills the winners tank with Gas). I’m taking the over. I strongly believe we’ve smashed through whatever theoretical barrier kept oil prices in check for the last 8-10 years and have now entered a period of compounding price increases.

There is actually a fairly well known theory that predicted the inflection point, Hubbert’s Peak, or Peak Oil.

Peak oil as a proper noun, or “Hubbert’s peak” applied more generally, refers to a singular event in history: the peak of the entire planet’s oil production. After Peak Oil, according to the Hubbert Peak Theory, the rate of oil production on Earth will enter a terminal decline. Based on his theory, in a paper he presented to the American Petroleum Institute in 1956, Hubbert predicted that production of oil from conventional sources would peak in the continental United States around 1965-1970 (actual peak was 1970). Hubbert further predicted a worldwide peak at “about half a century” from publication and approximately 12 gigabarrels (GB) a year in magnitude.

Turns out Hubbert was fairly accurate. The doomsday-ers have co-opted the theory and started a website called, smartly enough, PeakOil. There was an article recently in the NYTimes about survivalists moving off the grid and becoming self-sufficient driven by the fear that roving droves of gas seekers will storm their homes.. (Guns! Wack Jobs! Wacko Texas Revisited!). What I find interesting is the similarities with many green movements: locally grown foods, reduction in carbon footprint, reduced use of motor-vehicles, etc. In other words, the fringe is less fringy these days.

Below are a few charts which highlight the recent rapid rise of gas, along with an interesting chart that compares with crude oil prices. If I had the time, and honestly the aptitude, I’d like to pull apart the annual high/low delta. It seems there are three key price points: 1) ~mid-December which is the yearly low point, 2) early May which is the pre-summer peak, 3) early August which is the summer high before a run towards the December valley.

Chart with just gas (5 year)

With crude oil:

What is really interesting (scary?) is the fact crude prices appear to be increasing faster than gas at the pump. To me, this indicates there is the potential for gas prices to increase even more if they were to keep their historical correlation to crude. I won’t go into the whole “oil companies are evil and stealing from the public”. They are stockpiling profits. To do any less would be irresponsible to their shareholders. They claim this is required to fund present and future investments in alternative fuels. Lets all hope this is true. In the the meantime, public transportation and other forms of getting to around are now much more viable. A positive and natural outcome.

There are tons of ways to start cutting this data and looking at correlations, both obvious and obtuse. From a purely intellectual perspective, the (recent) oil crisis may be one of the more interesting challenges to surface in the last 50 years. (Passion! Profits! Hippies! More at 11!)

The New York Times had a very interesting piece on innovation, specifically how looking at existing habits and adapting new ones helps creativity and problem solving. By forcing change into our lives, we become more effective at overcoming the challenges we face on a daily basis. Successful problem solving results in breaking through barriers and opening up new ideas. A virtuous cycle which keeps the brain from atrophying, literally.

Not all “new thinking” leads to success, sometimes the failures are catastrophic and long lingering in our collective memory. Today is the 71st anniversary of the Hindenburg disaster, a frequent reference for any project that is not well planned and poorly executed with a very public collapse. However, it is also the anniversary of the 4 minute mile barrier being broken by Roger Bannister. Bannister initially faced failure during the 1952 Olympics and considered quiting competitive running entirely. But, he instead he looked the the 4 minute mile as a challenge, something to retrain his mind and body to overcome. Success followed. Bannister looked at this as just one milestone in his life however, and now looks at his achievements in the area of medicine and neurology as more important than any timed race.

My boss Omar posted a very thoughtful and comprehensive review of the current mobile landscape on the AdMob blog last week. Basically a fundamental shift has occurred in mobile where engineering and technology solutions are now the primary components of success for any product (and company). Previously business development skills, specifically negotiating carrier relationships, were the key criteria for mobile tech companies.

For me, this is really what signals the onset of Mobile 2.0. Innovation can now be put directly in front of users/customers. The feedback loop for making incremental, or wholesale improvements is near frictionless; technologic Darwinism is now in play.

The broader Internet went through a very similar transformation albeit on the engineering side. Web 2.0 was about having the tools and infrastructure to enable rapid development of ideas into services. Good ones thrived; bad ones were either modified or tossed by the wayside. Of course there are still huge challenges facing mobile developers, entrepreneurs, users, etc, but those challenges can now be translated into solutions.

Lots of bloggers and industry folks are continually talking about a ‘bubble’ in Silicon Valley tech (venture funded private companies). Personally, I don’t think anything could be further from the truth. The people I know involved in mobile companies have a passion for innovation and a pretty good understanding of how to succeed. Nearly all have worked both start-ups and the ones who are moving here bring a similar mindset. Show me the problem, let’s figure out a good way to solve it and than get shit done. That’s not a recipe for a bubble; it’s the foundation of practically every society around the world.

As I read about Microsoft’s decision to abandon their acquisition of Yahoo!, I couldn’t help but think how solid a choice that will turn out to be. Microsoft wasn’t buying technology, innovation or engineers; most good ones already left and those that remain will find no shortage of opportunities. They were buying reach and visitors, fools gold in today’s web application space. Yahoo! never understand how to foster innovation, at least during the time I worked there.

I wrote but never posted a long piece on why Y! lost their way. Thinking about it now, it’s not necessary. Res ipsa loquitor. While they might have the number one property in various categories (i.e. Web email), that hasn’t translated into a successful business model. Nor were the products they released ever revolutionary. Compounded by a corporate culture that rewarded sycophant behavior rather than effective problem solving and teamwork, the death spiral began long ago and cannot be reversed. My guess is their stock will get hammered Monday morning, followed by another round of layoffs leading to a further retraction in product originality.

They’ll be talk of future upside, organizational improvements and a unrealistic grasping to the straws of the ideals of the past. But all that’s moot. A friends father once told me an interesting parable in high school. I don’t think I ever really understood it, till recently.

A farmer kept his sheep in a pasture for years. There was plenty of grass, water and a shaded area for the sheep to hide from the mid-day sun. One day, someone accidentally left the gate open and all the sheep ran out. The farmer herded them all back into the pasture and closed the gate, now secured with a lock. The next morning the farmer went outside and realized the sheep had all jumped the fence and taken off, no where to be found.

Nameste.

Surprised this hasn’t been picked up more broadly, but REI stopped selling any water bottles made with BPA (a common ingredient in many plastic items).  All were pulled from the shelves as of last week.   Moro info directly from their website:

Due to the concerns recently voiced by many REI customers, REI no longer offers (as of April 19, 2008) polycarbonate water bottles. Polycarbonate is a tough, translucent plastic that includes bisphenol A (BPA). Ongoing scientific debate about the appropriateness of polycarbonate for beverage containers has resulted in REI offering many BPA-free water bottle alternatives (described above), which have replaced the demand for polycarbonate.

Recent findings by a government agency were the key driver for the decision, as well as growing customer preference:

The National Toxicology Program said two weeks ago there is “some concern” about BPA from experiments on rats that linked the chemical to changes in behavior and the brain, early puberty and possibly precancerous changes in the prostate and breast. While such animal studies only provide “limited evidence” of risk, the draft report said a possible effect on humans “cannot be dismissed.”

In fact Nalgene, one of the most common brands, stopped manufacturing BPA based items entirely.   Wow.   Aluminum appears to be the container of preference now, which should benefit Sigg substantially.   Could be an over reaction, who knows.  I’m going to create a flask from sheep intestine just to be safe. 

Spring is here.  (Well, it should be anyway.  Nagging cool weather on the West coast).  While I enjoy late summer - early fall more, spring carries the most anticipation.  The days become longer, plants respond to their winter pruning with a rapid growth spurt and the decision to plant summer vegetables looms large. 

I’ve always been obsessed with plants that ‘produce’.  A great flower doesn’t really do it for me, but an edible, flowering herb seems so much more efficient.  I also place a premium on plants that produce vegetables that can be stored and used for the rest of the year…my favorite by far is peppers.  Each year I grow between 15-20 pepper plants, everything from Italian sweets to Jalapenos to Thai Dragons. 

This year I’m also going to try producing more “daily” foods.  The locavore movement has so many tertiary benefits that growing more tomatoes, a few onions and other common vegetables we’d ordinarily get at the store really can make an impact.    Also, nothing tastes better than fresh culinary herbs in simple backyard grown salad. 

Farming, more salacious employment not withstanding, is indeed the oldest profession.  

I came aross an old CNET article from Dec ‘03 that predicted Google would most likely go public ’soon’ due to an obscure SEC rule.  

Securities law requires private companies that exceed a certain level of stock distribution to file quarterly financial data with federal regulators. If the law is applied to the popular search engine, Google executives would have to disclose the company’s closely guarded financial information, and it could ultimately play into the decision on whether or when to take the company public.

A private company must report its finances once it has more than 500 common shareholders–or stock-option holders–and $10 million in assets, according to section XII(g) of the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934. That means a private company must file quarterly forms with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) that disclose operating expenses, profits, partnerships, shareholders and many other details–a laborious process that can cost as much as $2 million annually. ..

SEC standards require that qualifying private companies report within four months of the end of their calendar year, which in Google’s case is April.

If I were to fashion a guess, considering Facebook’s aggressive hiring rate, I’d say they’ll cross the 500 mark this year (2008).  Seems reasonable that ~450 employees will have vested some amount of stock options by 12/31.  Adding to that number other investors, outside shareholders, etc, the 500 threshold is very likely to be exceeded. 

The biggest question then becomes when is Facebook’s fiscal year end?  If set to the calendar year, and they do indeed exceed the shareholder minimum, an IPO filing before May 1st 2009 would be very, very likely.  Of course a company in this situation isn’t required to go public, they just have to report quarterly financials and comply with many of the same guidelines as public companies.   It’s very unlikely Facebook, or anyone else, would carry that burden without getting the potential reward a public offering would provide. 

Certainly will be interesting to watch.